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Conference tournament preview: Men's basketball

Throw the season records out the window now. Maybe.

Following a pair of season-ending double-digit victories, the Fords find themselves in the Centennial Conference tournament for the fifth time in the past eight seasons.

All that matters now is the next win, and this one will have to come on the road in Westminster, Md., against host McDaniel College in the quarterfinal round of the league playoffs.

The Fords (13-11, 10-8 CC) finished the regular season fifth in the league standings while the Green Terror (13-12, 10-8) were fourth, earning the right to host the quarterfinal round game.

If history does matter heading into Wednesday's contest, the two seem evenly matched having split the season series with each team winning on the other's home court. In fact, the overall record between the Fords and McDaniel stands at 18-17 in favor of Haverford. When at home, the Fords own a 9-4 advantage, while on the road in Westminster their record is 6-7.

Those facts might be predicting another barn-burner Wednesday night.

The first game between the squads in the 2010-11 schedule saw six lead changes in the opening 20 minutes before visiting McDaniel headed into the break with a two-point lead. Haverford pulled even four separate times in second-half action, but the Green Terror pulled away from a slim two-point edge with two minutes remaining to close out a 68-61 win.

On Feb. 5 Haverford went into the Gill Center at McDaniel and looked like it might win the game in a rout, building a lead that grew to 12 during first-half play. The hosts clawed back into the game, though, and the Fords had to settle for just a four-point lead as the players headed into the locker rooms at halftime.

An early Green Terror run in the second half allowed the home squad to slip into the lead but after four more lead changes Haverford embarked on an 11-0 run to put the game on ice in the Fords' road victory.

On paper, the teams seem as evenly matched as their records and results show.

Haverford is third in the conference in scoring offense at 72.1 points per game while McDaniel is only eighth (60.8). However, the Green Terror top the league in scoring defense allowing just 58.8 points per game compared to a 69.8 mark from the Fords.

The Fords lead the league in field goal percentage (.470) and three-point percentage (.366), however, compared to only the seventh best field goal mark (.409) and fifth-best three-point average (.318) from the Green Terror. These numbers seem to hint that if the game becomes a high-scoring affair, the advantage looks to be on Haverford's side.

McDaniel has been able to keep scores down, though, by averaging 1.7 more rebounds per game than its opponents, a statistical area in which Haverford is in the negative allowing 2.3 more rebounds per game by its opponents.

So the game, as most do, will likely boil down to individual match-ups.

Haverford's Cam Baker is sixth in scoring, 16.8 points per game, on the conference list while McDaniel's Devon Lesniak is 12th (14.5). If long-range shooting becomes part of the game plan, the Fords also hold the edge their as Louis Cipriano leads the Centennial with a .452 average beyond the arc and teammate Ian Goldberg is second (.444). Lesniak tops the McDaniel three-point list with a .353 average.

Though the Green Terror have an edge in rebounding margin it's Haverford's Sam Permutt that ranks highest within league statistics pulling down an average of 8.3 per game, second-most in the conference. McDaniel's leader, Evan Pupelis, averages less than half (4.6) the rebounds per game than Permutt.

Haverford was out-rebounded by McDaniel in both games this season but in its win in Westminster, out-shot the hosts by hitting nearly 60 percent from the floor while allowing the Green Terror to shoot just 37 percent in the loss. McDaniel held the shooting advantage, 46 to 42 percent, in its win on the Gooding Arena court.

Numbers, numbers, numbers. That's all this may be, though.

Both teams have notched solid victories over quality opponents during the year, and both have losses they each certainly believe they let get away.

Home teams usually have the advantage in playoff atmospheres, but the Fords have proven they can win in Gill Arena already. If momentum comes into play the advantage may be on the Fords' bench with a two-game win streak to close out the season and a 4-2 record in their final six games compared to a 2-4 mark from McDaniel and a loss to Gettysburg College in the season finale that could have netted the Green Terror the third-seed in the tournament.